Democrats in Denial: CNN’s Surprising Poll Reveals Trump Would Still Beat Harris as Party Faces Generational Crisis
In a revelation that’s sending shockwaves through Democratic circles, CNN data analyst Harry Enten delivered what he called “bad news” for Democrats who have been banking on President Donald Trump’s perceived unpopularity to fuel their political comeback. According to CNN’s latest polling data, even with Trump’s approval ratings showing some decline since his inauguration, he continues to outperform his Democratic rivals in head-to-head matchups—most notably maintaining an edge over former Vice President Kamala Harris in a hypothetical contest.
The surprising poll results, coupled with growing evidence of generational disconnect within the Democratic Party, paint a picture of an opposition in disarray, struggling to capitalize on what they assumed would be Trump’s vulnerability. As young voters increasingly express dissatisfaction with aging Democratic leadership and the party grapples with internal ideological divisions, the conventional wisdom about Trump’s political standing appears to be crumbling under the weight of empirical data.
The Numbers That Should Terrify Democrats
CNN’s latest poll delivered results that challenge the narrative Democrats have been pushing since Trump’s return to office. According to the survey, 45 percent of voters believe Trump is doing a better job as president than Kamala Harris would have done had she won the 2024 election. Only 43 percent think Harris would have performed better, while 12 percent see no difference between the two.
Harry Enten, CNN’s senior data analyst known for his nonpartisan number-crunching, didn’t mince words about the implications: “It’s not just about regretting that vote. It’s literally saying who would be doing the better job right now? And Trump continues to score a higher percentage of the vote than Kamala Harris. This looks a heck of a lot like the election result.”
What makes these numbers particularly striking is their consistency. As Enten noted, “We have just seen this in poll after poll after poll, despite the fact that Trump’s favorable ratings aren’t too hot to trot when he’s matched up against who he was matched up against in 2024. He still, across the polls, scores a higher percentage than Kamala Harris.”
The Vacuum vs. Reality Paradox
Enten highlighted a crucial distinction that Democrats seem to be missing: Trump’s numbers in isolation versus his performance in direct comparisons. “The bottom line is when you look at Donald Trump in a vacuum, it’s one thing, but when you actually match him up against folks in the real world, all of a sudden his numbers look considerably better.”
This phenomenon extends beyond just Harris. When matched against congressional Democrats on trust regarding major issues facing the United States, Trump holds an eight-point advantage—a margin Enten described as “a wide ocean” in today’s polarized political environment.
“If Democrats think that at this particular point, just because Donald Trump is unpopular, that they’re going to run away with it like a Heisman trophy winner, that is not necessarily the case,” Enten warned. “These numbers should be a major wake-up call for Democrats, despite Donald Trump’s unpopularity in the polls.”
The Generational Revolt Within Democratic Ranks
While Democrats struggle with Trump’s resilient polling numbers, they face an equally daunting challenge from within their own ranks. Brett Cooper, host of “The Brett Cooper Show” on YouTube and a prominent voice of her generation, offered a scathing assessment of the Democratic Party’s disconnect with young voters during an appearance on “Fox & Friends.”
“Democrats are completely out of touch with their voter base,” Cooper declared. “They are aging out. We do not want them in Congress anymore on the left and the right.”
Cooper’s critique centers on the advanced age of Democratic leadership, pointing to figures like Senator Dick Durbin, who recently announced his retirement. “You see members of Congress like Dick [Durbin] who are so old,” she said. “Young people feel unrepresented, and they are fed up.”
The Democratic Dilemma: Caught Between Extremes
Cooper articulated what many political observers see as the Democratic Party’s fundamental strategic crisis: a party torn between its progressive wing and moderate center, unable to satisfy either constituency.
“If they don’t like Donald Trump, then they’re angry that their representatives are not pushing back enough. If they are more common sense in the center, they’re angry with how radical they’ve gotten. They just feel completely left alone,” Cooper explained.
This internal conflict has created a no-win situation for Democratic leadership. Progressive activists demand more aggressive opposition to Trump and more radical policy positions, while moderate voters—particularly in swing districts—recoil from what they perceive as extremism. The result is a party that appears paralyzed, unable to present a coherent alternative to Trump’s agenda.
Harvard Study Confirms Youth Disillusionment
Cooper’s observations aren’t merely anecdotal. A recently released poll from the Harvard Kennedy School’s Institute of Politics provides empirical backing for her claims about young voters’ dissatisfaction with Democratic leadership. The study reveals a generation increasingly skeptical of both parties but particularly disillusioned with Democrats who they feel have failed to address their concerns about economic opportunity, climate change, and social justice.
The Harvard findings suggest that young voters don’t see themselves reflected in the septuagenarian and octogenarian leaders who dominate Democratic Party leadership. This age gap translates into policy disconnects, communication failures, and a general sense that the party is out of touch with the lived experiences of Americans under 40.
The Strategic Implications for 2026 and Beyond
Enten’s analysis carries profound implications for Democratic strategy heading into the 2026 midterms and beyond. His warning to Democrats was unequivocal: “When you actually go up against him and you put Democrats’ names against him, when you put Republicans as a whole up against him, Republicans and Donald Trump do considerably better. And that is why Democrats, in fact, cannot count their chickens just yet because those eggs have not cracked at this particular moment.”
The metaphor is particularly apt. Democrats have been operating under the assumption that Trump’s controversial style and polarizing policies would naturally lead to electoral backlash. Instead, they’re discovering that when voters are presented with actual alternatives—not hypothetical ones—Trump and Republicans maintain their advantage.
The Kamala Harris Factor
The poll’s specific findings about Kamala Harris deserve special attention. As the 2024 Democratic nominee who lost to Trump, Harris represents the most recent and concrete alternative voters can evaluate. The fact that she continues to trail Trump in retrospective assessments suggests several troubling realities for Democrats:
- Buyer’s Remorse Isn’t Materializing: Despite Democratic hopes, voters aren’t experiencing regret over their 2024 choice.
- Policy Over Personality: Trump’s policy outcomes may matter more to voters than his personal characteristics.
- Democratic Brand Problems: Harris’s underperformance may reflect broader issues with the Democratic Party brand rather than personal shortcomings.
- The Incumbency Advantage: Even with modest approval ratings, Trump benefits from being the known quantity currently delivering results.
The Trust Gap on Major Issues
Perhaps most damaging for Democrats is the eight-point trust gap on major issues facing the country. This deficit encompasses:
- Economic management
- Border security
- Foreign policy
- Crime and public safety
- Energy policy
Across these critical areas, voters consistently express more confidence in Trump and Republicans than in congressional Democrats. This trust gap explains why Trump’s overall approval rating doesn’t translate into vulnerability when matched against specific Democratic opponents.
The Age Problem Democrats Can’t Ignore
The Democratic Party’s leadership age crisis extends far beyond Dick Durbin’s retirement. The average age of Democratic congressional leadership significantly exceeds that of their Republican counterparts, creating both practical and perceptual problems:
Practical Challenges:
- Difficulty connecting with younger constituents
- Limited understanding of modern technology and social media
- Health concerns affecting legislative effectiveness
- Resistance to new ideas and approaches
Perceptual Problems:
- Image of being stuck in the past
- Inability to articulate a forward-looking vision
- Disconnect from contemporary cultural movements
- Failure to inspire younger candidates
The Progressive-Moderate Divide
Cooper’s observation about Democrats being “caught between extremes” reflects a fundamental strategic dilemma. The party’s progressive wing demands:
- Medicare for All
- Green New Deal policies
- Defunding police initiatives
- Radical economic redistribution
- Aggressive social justice measures
Meanwhile, moderate Democrats advocate for:
- Incremental healthcare reforms
- Balanced environmental policies
- Increased police funding with reforms
- Market-based economic solutions
- Pragmatic approaches to social issues
This schism leaves the party unable to present a unified message or coherent policy platform, allowing Trump to position himself as the candidate of stability and common sense.
The Media Narrative vs. Political Reality
The CNN poll findings expose a significant disconnect between media narratives about Trump’s unpopularity and actual voter preferences. While news coverage often focuses on Trump’s controversial statements and polarizing actions, voters appear to be making more nuanced assessments based on:
- Policy Outcomes: Tangible results in areas like the economy and border security
- Comparative Analysis: Evaluation of Trump against specific Democratic alternatives
- Governance Effectiveness: Perception of who can better handle major challenges
- Authenticity: Trump’s perceived genuineness versus Democratic messaging
Warning Signs for Democratic Strategy
Enten’s analysis should serve as a clarion call for Democratic strategists. The current approach—waiting for Trump to self-destruct while avoiding substantive policy alternatives—isn’t working. Key warning signs include:
- Persistent Polling Deficits: Continued trailing in head-to-head matchups
- Trust Gap: Inability to gain voter confidence on major issues
- Generational Disconnect: Failure to engage younger voters effectively
- Message Incoherence: Lack of unified party messaging
- Leadership Vacuum: Absence of compelling alternative voices
The Republican Advantage
While Democrats struggle with internal divisions and messaging problems, Republicans benefit from:
- Unified support for Trump’s agenda
- Clear policy positions on major issues
- Younger, more dynamic congressional leadership
- Effective use of alternative media platforms
- Strong connection with working-class voters
This structural advantage compounds Democrats’ difficulties in presenting themselves as a viable alternative.
The Path Forward: Challenges and Opportunities
For Democrats to reverse their fortunes, several fundamental changes appear necessary:
Leadership Renewal
- Promoting younger voices within the party
- Developing new policy spokespersons
- Creating pathways for generational transition
- Embracing fresh perspectives and ideas
Message Discipline
- Developing coherent policy positions
- Avoiding ideological extremes
- Focusing on kitchen-table issues
- Speaking directly to voter concerns
Strategic Recalibration
- Moving beyond anti-Trump messaging
- Offering concrete policy alternatives
- Building coalitions across demographic lines
- Addressing working-class priorities
The 2026 Preview
As the 2026 midterm elections approach, these polling trends suggest Republicans may be better positioned than conventional wisdom suggests. Historical patterns of midterm losses for the president’s party might not apply if:
- Democrats can’t field compelling candidates
- The trust gap on major issues persists
- Young voters remain disengaged from Democratic messaging
- Economic conditions continue improving
Conclusion: Reality Check for Democratic Ambitions
Harry Enten’s presentation of CNN’s polling data, combined with Brett Cooper’s generational critique and supporting evidence from Harvard’s research, paints a sobering picture for Democratic prospects. The party’s assumption that Trump’s unpopularity would automatically translate into Democratic advantage has proven naive.
The revelation that Trump would still defeat Kamala Harris in a hypothetical rematch—and maintains significant advantages over congressional Democrats on major issues—suggests that Democratic problems run deeper than tactical campaign decisions. They reflect fundamental disconnects with the electorate on policy, presentation, and personnel.
As Enten concluded, Democrats “cannot count their chickens just yet because those eggs have not cracked at this particular moment.” Given current trends, those eggs may never hatch into the electoral victories Democrats anticipate unless they address their generational crisis, ideological confusion, and persistent inability to present compelling alternatives to Trump’s agenda.
The message from voters seems clear: they may not love Trump in isolation, but when forced to choose between him and current Democratic alternatives, they’re sticking with the president they know. For a Democratic Party hoping to reclaim power, that reality should trigger serious soul-searching about their message, their messengers, and their fundamental approach to American politics in the Trump era.
Until Democrats grapple honestly with these challenges—including their aging leadership, ideological incoherence, and failure to connect with key voter demographics—they risk remaining trapped in a cycle of electoral disappointment, watching Trump and Republicans maintain their advantage despite what Democrats perceive as obvious vulnerabilities.
The polls don’t lie, and right now, they’re telling Democrats a truth they may not want to hear but can’t afford to ignore: Trump isn’t as weak as they think, and they aren’t as strong as they hope. That’s a recipe for continued Republican dominance unless dramatic changes occur within Democratic ranks.
🚨CNN just dumped cold water on Kamala Harris after her “big speech” last night:
“Who would be doing a better job as president?”
“Guess who comes out on top?”
“Trump CONTINUES to score a higher percentage of the vote than Kamala Harris!” pic.twitter.com/iFTBYhcmjB
— Townhall.com (@townhallcom) May 1, 2025
