Who Will Be the Next Pope? A Comprehensive Analysis of the Papal Election Process and Leading Candidates Following the Death of Pope Francis

The Catholic World Enters a Historic Period of Transition as the Conclave Prepares to Select the 267th Bishop of Rome

The predawn announcement on Easter Monday, April 21, 2025, marked the end of an extraordinary chapter in Catholic history: Pope Francis, born Jorge Mario Bergoglio, had passed away at the age of 88. As Catholics worldwide process their grief over the loss of the Argentine pontiff who reshaped the Church through his emphasis on mercy, social justice, and dialogue, attention inevitably turns to the pivotal question that will define the coming weeks: Who will become the next Supreme Pontiff of the Roman Catholic Church?

The selection of a new pope represents one of the oldest continuous electoral processes in human history, combining sacred tradition with political complexity as the College of Cardinals convenes to discern the future direction of a global faith community comprising over 1.3 billion people. This comprehensive analysis explores the intricate procedures of papal election, profiles the leading candidates who may assume the Chair of St. Peter, and examines the profound implications of this selection for the Church and the world beyond.

From Mourning to Conclave: The Sacred Transition Period

The formal announcement of Pope Francis’s death, delivered by Cardinal Kevin Farrell in his capacity as Camerlengo (chamberlain) of the Holy Roman Church, initiated a carefully choreographed sequence of events that will culminate in the election of the 267th Bishop of Rome. Cardinal Farrell’s solemn declaration—”Dearest brothers and sisters, with deep sorrow I must announce the death of our Holy Father Francis. At 7:35 this morning, the Bishop of Rome, Francis, returned to the home of the Father”—marked the official beginning of the sede vacante period, during which the See of St. Peter remains vacant.

This interregnum is governed by the apostolic constitution Universi Dominici Gregis, promulgated by Pope John Paul II in 1996 with subsequent modifications by Pope Benedict XVI. The document meticulously outlines the procedures to be followed during this period, balancing the need for reverent mourning with the practical requirements of Church governance and the preparation for the conclave that will select Francis’s successor.

The Nine Days of Mourning

The traditional novendiales, or nine days of mourning, begin immediately following the Pope’s death. During this period, funeral rites will be celebrated in St. Peter’s Basilica, with the body of the late pontiff lying in state to allow the faithful to pay their respects. These public ceremonies serve not only as expressions of grief but also as powerful demonstrations of the Church’s continuity amid transition, reminding the world that while popes pass away, the institution they lead endures.

The funeral liturgy itself will be a masterful blend of ancient tradition and contemporary relevance, likely incorporating elements that reflect Francis’s particular charisms: his commitment to the poor, his ecological consciousness, and his emphasis on mercy. Cardinals from around the world will begin arriving in Rome during this period, many of them appointed by Francis himself and thus representing his vision for the Church’s future.

The General Congregations: Setting the Stage

Following the funeral observances, the College of Cardinals will convene in a series of meetings known as general congregations. These gatherings, which typically last from four to seven days, serve several crucial functions:

1. Administrative Oversight: During the sede vacante, the College of Cardinals collectively assumes certain governance responsibilities normally exercised by the Pope, ensuring the Church’s continued operation while preventing any individual from assuming undue authority.
2. Needs Assessment: The cardinals engage in frank discussions about the challenges facing the Church, both globally and in specific regions. These conversations help identify the qualities desired in the next pope, shaping the criteria against which candidates will be evaluated.
3. Candidate Emergence: While formal campaigning is strictly prohibited, these meetings allow cardinals to observe their colleagues’ perspectives, leadership styles, and theological orientations, facilitating the informal consensus-building that often precedes the formal voting process.
4. Practical Preparations: The congregations also address logistical matters related to the conclave, including the preparation of the Sistine Chapel and the Casa Santa Marta, where the cardinals will reside during the election process.

The Mechanics of Papal Election: A Sacred and Secret Process

The papal conclave represents a unique fusion of spiritual discernment and democratic procedure, designed to facilitate the selection of a leader who can guide the Church through an increasingly complex global landscape. The term “conclave” derives from the Latin cum clave (“with a key”), referring to the practice of locking the cardinals in the Sistine Chapel to ensure complete isolation from external influences during the voting process.

Electoral Eligibility and Participation

Only cardinals who have not reached their 80th birthday before the Pope’s death are eligible to participate in the conclave. As of Francis’s passing, this restricts the electoral college to 138 cardinals, though the traditional maximum is 120 electors. This age limitation, introduced by Pope Paul VI in 1970, aimed to ensure that those selecting the next pope would be actively engaged in the Church’s contemporary challenges.

The composition of the current College of Cardinals reflects Francis’s global vision:

• Europe: 52 electors (37.7%)
• The Americas: 38 electors (27.5%)
• Asia: 22 electors (15.9%)
• Africa: 21 electors (15.2%)
• Oceania: 5 electors (3.6%)

This geographic distribution marks a significant shift from historical patterns, with increased representation from the Global South reflecting Francis’s emphasis on peripheries and his recognition of the Church’s changing demographic center.

The Voting Process: Tradition Meets Technology

Once the conclave begins, typically 15-20 days after the Pope’s death, the cardinals enter a period of intense prayer, reflection, and voting. The process unfolds according to strict protocols:

1. Oath of Secrecy: All participants swear solemn oaths to maintain absolute confidentiality regarding the proceedings, under penalty of automatic excommunication.
2. Communication Blackout: The Sistine Chapel and Casa Santa Marta are swept for electronic devices and shielded against external signals, creating a technological “dead zone” to prevent unauthorized communication.
3. Balloting Procedures: Up to four ballots may be conducted daily—two in the morning session and two in the afternoon. Each cardinal writes their choice on a specially prepared ballot paper, using disguised handwriting to maintain anonymity.
4. Scrutiny and Counting: Three cardinals chosen by lot serve as scrutineers, meticulously counting the votes and verifying their accuracy. The process is witnessed by three revisers who double-check the count.
5. Majority Requirement: A two-thirds supermajority is required for election. If no candidate achieves this threshold after approximately 30 ballots, the requirement may be reduced to an absolute majority, though this provision has never been utilized.
6. Smoke Signals: After each voting session, ballots are burned in a specially designed stove. Chemical additives create black smoke (fumata nera) for inconclusive ballots or white smoke (fumata bianca) when a pope has been elected.

The Moment of Acceptance

When a cardinal receives the necessary votes, the Dean of the College of Cardinals approaches him with the formal question: “Do you accept your canonical election as Supreme Pontiff?” The elect must respond clearly to this query. Upon acceptance, he is asked, “By what name do you wish to be called?” The choice of papal name often signals the new pope’s intended direction and the historical figures he wishes to emulate.

Following acceptance, the newly elected pope dons the white papal cassock for the first time in the “Room of Tears,” so named for the overwhelming emotions typically experienced by the new pontiff as he contemplates the magnitude of his new responsibilities.

The Leading Papal Contenders: Profiles of Potential Successors

While theoretically any baptized Catholic male could be elected pope, practical considerations limit the field to current cardinals with significant experience in Church governance, pastoral ministry, or theological leadership. The following profiles examine the most prominent papabili (potential popes) based on their backgrounds, theological orientations, and potential appeal to different factions within the College of Cardinals.

Cardinal Raymond Leo Burke (United States)

Age: 77 Current Position: Prefect Emeritus of the Apostolic Signatura Background: Born in 1948 in Richland Center, Wisconsin, Burke’s ecclesiastical career has spanned both American and Vatican contexts. He served as Archbishop of St. Louis (2004-2008) before being appointed to various Vatican positions by Pope Benedict XVI.

Theological Profile: Burke represents the traditionalist wing of the Church, emphasizing doctrinal orthodoxy, liturgical reverence, and clear moral teaching. He has been a vocal critic of what he perceives as ambiguity in Church teachings on marriage, sexuality, and the reception of communion by divorced and remarried Catholics.

Potential Impact: Burke’s election would likely signal a return to more conservative approaches in liturgy and doctrine, potentially reversing some of Francis’s pastoral innovations. His supporters argue this would provide needed clarity in an era of moral confusion, while critics fear it could deepen divisions within the Church.

Challenges: Burke’s outspoken criticism of Francis’s pontificate might make him a polarizing figure, potentially struggling to unite the diverse global Church. His American nationality, while not disqualifying, might face resistance from cardinals preferring a non-superpower pope.

Cardinal Péter Erdő (Hungary)

Age: 73 Current Position: Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest, Primate of Hungary Background: Born in Budapest in 1952, Erdő represents Eastern European Catholicism’s resilience through communist persecution and post-communist revival. He holds doctorates in both theology and canon law, bringing considerable intellectual depth to his pastoral ministry.

Theological Profile: Erdő combines doctrinal conservatism with sophisticated understanding of contemporary challenges. He has emphasized religious freedom, family values, and the new evangelization while showing openness to ecumenical dialogue, particularly with Orthodox Christians.

Potential Impact: An Erdő papacy might bridge traditionalist and moderate factions, offering doctrinal stability while continuing Francis’s emphasis on dialogue. His Eastern European background could strengthen the Church’s witness in regions experiencing both secularization and religious revival.

Challenges: Some progressive cardinals might view Erdő as too conservative on social issues, while his nationality could raise concerns about the Church becoming too closely associated with current political tensions in Eastern Europe.

Cardinal José Tolentino de Mendonça (Portugal)

Age: 59 Current Position: Prefect of the Dicastery for Culture and Education Background: A renowned poet, theologian, and biblical scholar, Mendonça represents a unique blend of artistic sensibility and theological sophistication. His appointment as Vatican Librarian by Francis in 2018 and subsequent elevation to cardinal status marked him as a rising figure in the Church.

Theological Profile: Mendonça embodies progressive Catholic intellectualism, emphasizing beauty as a pathway to faith, social justice as integral to evangelization, and dialogue as essential to mission. His writings explore the intersections of faith, culture, and contemporary experience.

Potential Impact: A Mendonça papacy would likely continue and perhaps deepen Francis’s reforms, particularly in areas of cultural engagement, environmental concern, and social outreach. His poetic sensibility might bring fresh language and imagery to papal teaching.

Challenges: His relative youth and limited administrative experience could count against him in a conclave often favoring seasoned governance. Conservative cardinals might view his progressive stances as problematic for Church unity.

Cardinal Pietro Parolin (Italy)

Age: 70 Current Position: Cardinal Secretary of State Background: A career Vatican diplomat, Parolin has served in crucial roles including nuncio to Venezuela and Secretary for Relations with States. As Francis’s Secretary of State since 2013, he has been intimately involved in the current pontificate’s major initiatives.

Theological Profile: Parolin represents diplomatic pragmatism combined with loyalty to Francis’s vision. He has skillfully navigated complex negotiations with China, Russia, and various Middle Eastern states while supporting the Pope’s reform agenda.

Potential Impact: A Parolin papacy would likely ensure continuity with Francis’s policies while bringing enhanced diplomatic sophistication to global challenges. His experience could prove invaluable in addressing geopolitical tensions affecting Catholic communities worldwide.

Challenges: Close association with Francis might make Parolin less appealing to cardinals seeking change. His bureaucratic background could be perceived as lacking the pastoral warmth many desire in a pope.

Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines)

Age: 68 Current Position: Prefect of the Dicastery for Evangelization Background: Former Archbishop of Manila, Tagle has been called “the Asian Francis” for his emphasis on mercy, simplicity, and the poor. His communication skills and charismatic presence have made him a global Catholic media figure.

Theological Profile: Tagle combines doctrinal orthodoxy with pastoral flexibility, embodying the Asian Church’s approach to inculturation and dialogue. He strongly advocates for environmental stewardship, migrant rights, and interreligious cooperation.

Potential Impact: A Tagle papacy would represent a historic shift toward the Global South, potentially energizing the Church in Asia and Africa while continuing Francis’s emphasis on peripheries. His media savvy could enhance the Church’s public communication.

Challenges: Some European cardinals might resist moving the papacy’s cultural center away from its traditional base. Questions about his administrative capabilities at the Vatican level remain untested.

Additional Prominent Candidates

Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (Italy): Archbishop of Bologna and peace mediator, known for his work with Sant’Egidio Community and recent diplomatic efforts regarding Ukraine.

Cardinal Cristóbal López Romero (Spain/Morocco): Archbishop of Rabat, representing the Church’s frontier ministry in Muslim-majority contexts and championing migrant rights.

Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa (Italy/Jerusalem): Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, bringing unique perspective from Christianity’s birthplace and expertise in interfaith relations.

Cardinal Blase Cupich (United States): Archbishop of Chicago, representing American progressive Catholicism and Francis’s vision of a synodal Church.

Cardinal Marc Ouellet (Canada): Former Prefect of the Dicastery for Bishops, combining North American perspective with Vatican experience and theological depth.

Key Issues Shaping the Conclave

The cardinals’ deliberations will be influenced by several pressing challenges facing the contemporary Church:

1. The Synodal Process

Francis’s emphasis on synodality—a more participatory model of Church governance—has generated both enthusiasm and resistance. The next pope must decide whether to continue, modify, or potentially reverse this trajectory toward greater decentralization and lay involvement in decision-making.

2. The Abuse Crisis and Accountability

The ongoing fallout from clergy sexual abuse scandals continues to damage the Church’s credibility. Cardinals will consider candidates’ track records on transparency, victim support, and structural reforms to prevent future abuse.

3. Liturgical Questions

The tension between traditional and contemporary liturgical expressions, exemplified by debates over the Latin Mass and liturgical translations, requires sensitive navigation by the next pope.

4. Environmental Stewardship

Building on Francis’s Laudato Si’ encyclical, the Church’s role in addressing climate change and ecological degradation will likely influence the selection process, particularly among younger cardinals.

5. Economic Justice and Migration

The global refugee crisis, economic inequality, and the Church’s advocacy for marginalized populations will weigh heavily in evaluating candidates’ pastoral priorities.

6. Interfaith Relations

With religious tensions rising globally, the next pope’s approach to dialogue with Islam, Judaism, and other faiths carries significant implications for world peace and religious freedom.

7. Technological Challenges

The digital revolution, artificial intelligence, and bioethical questions present novel challenges requiring theological reflection and pastoral guidance.

Historical Patterns and Potential Surprises

History suggests several patterns that might influence the conclave’s outcome:

1. Alternation Theory: The Church often alternates between different styles of leadership—a diplomatic pope might be followed by a more pastoral figure, or vice versa.
2. Geographic Considerations: Following the first Latin American pope, cardinals might seek representation from another underrepresented region, particularly Africa or Asia.
3. Age Factor: After Francis’s relatively long pontificate, electors might prefer a younger candidate capable of longer service, though experience remains valued.
4. Surprise Elections: Recent conclaves have produced unexpected results, reminding observers that the Holy Spirit’s guidance often confounds human predictions.

The Global Impact of Papal Selection

The choice of the next pope will reverberate far beyond the Catholic Church:

Geopolitical Implications

The pope’s moral authority influences international relations, particularly in conflict resolution, human rights advocacy, and diplomatic mediation. The next pontiff’s approach to China, Russia, the Middle East, and other sensitive regions will shape global dynamics.

Ecumenical Relations

Progress toward Christian unity depends significantly on papal leadership. The next pope’s commitment to dialogue with Orthodox, Protestant, and Anglican communities will affect the broader Christian world.

Social and Cultural Influence

Papal teachings on bioethics, family life, economic systems, and human dignity shape public discourse and policy debates worldwide, affecting both Catholic and non-Catholic societies.

Environmental Leadership

The Church’s stance on climate change and environmental protection, articulated powerfully by Francis, awaits continuation or modification by his successor, with implications for global environmental policy.

The Road Ahead: Timeline and Expectations

The coming weeks will unfold according to established patterns:

• Days 1-3: Funeral rites and public mourning
• Days 4-7: General congregations and preparatory meetings
• Day 8: Conclave begins
• Days 8-22: Voting continues until election
• Day 23: Habemus Papam announcement and inaugural Mass

During this period, speculation will abound, leaks may occur despite secrecy oaths, and the world will watch the chimney of the Sistine Chapel for the white smoke signaling a new era in Church history.

Conclusion: A Moment of Profound Significance

The election of Pope Francis’s successor represents more than a leadership transition; it embodies the Catholic Church’s ongoing dialogue between tradition and adaptation, universality and particularity, continuity and reform. As the cardinals gather in the Sistine Chapel, they bear the weight of selecting not merely an administrator or theologian, but a spiritual father for over a billion Catholics and a moral voice for humanity.

Whether the conclave produces a reformer in Francis’s mold, a traditionalist seeking to preserve ancient practices, or a bridge-builder combining both impulses, the choice will shape Christianity’s largest denomination for decades to come. As the world awaits the appearance of white smoke above St. Peter’s, Catholics and non-Catholics alike recognize that this ancient ritual of selection carries profound implications for our shared global future.

The prayer “Veni, Creator Spiritus” (Come, Creator Spirit) will echo through the Sistine Chapel as the cardinals begin their deliberations, invoking divine guidance for a decision that transcends human calculation. In this convergence of prayer, politics, and providence, the next chapter of Catholic history awaits its author.